Set the planning assumptions
This calculation tests whether a SaaS team can create and close enough new pipeline before quarter-end.
At the end of week 4 in a 13-week quarter, 20 of 65 selling days have elapsed. The new ARR bookings target is $600,000 and bookings so far are $150,000. The calculation excludes expansion, unchanged renewals, services, recognized revenue, and cash.
- The selected curve expects 25% of bookings by the review date, giving $150,000 seasonal expected and $0 seasonal variance.
- Linear expected bookings are $184,615. Curve-based finish is $150,000 / 25% = $600,000.
- The remaining $450,000 gap over 45 selling days requires $10,000 per day, or $50,000 per five-day week.
- Current-quarter eligible open ARR is $600,000 across 24 opportunities. A separate pool has 1,000 eligible buying accounts, excluding active buying work and protected/nurture exclusions.
Compare the existing-pipeline calls
Assume stage weighting values the existing open work at $300,000, category weighting at $350,000, and rep adjustment at $330,000. A RevPack-style timing illustration multiplies relevant open contributions by the remaining curve share of 75%.
The submitted management call remains $450,000, based on $150,000 booked plus an assumed $300,000 existing contribution. The leader must identify buyer decisions supporting that stronger call relative to the timing view.
- Booked plus stage-weighted open: $450,000.
- Booked plus category-weighted open: $500,000.
- Booked plus timing-adjusted stage open: $375,000.
- Booked plus timing-adjusted rep open: $397,500.
- The $600,000 pace projection uses bookings already won and the expected booking pattern. The deal estimates use open opportunities. Inspect which remaining deals could close before relying on the pace projection; this example does not fit a blend of the estimates.
Backsolve creation with a deadline
Using the management assumption, the unsupported contribution is $600,000 − $150,000 − $300,000 = $150,000. Assume both new qualified opportunity ARR and average won ARR are $25,000, with 20% winning within 35 selling days.
The qualification deadline is the end of week 6, two weeks after the review. It leaves 35 selling days before quarter-end. Sourcing and discovery must happen before that deadline for the assumed win rate to apply.
- 1,000 eligible accounts × 25% engaged = 250 engaged buying accounts.
- 250 engaged accounts × 50% booked = 125 booked discoveries.
- 125 booked × 80% attendance = 100 held first discoveries.
- 100 held × 30% qualification = 30 qualified opportunities, totaling $750,000 ARR.
- 30 qualified × 20% within-window wins = 6 wins; 6 × $25,000 = $150,000 expected bookings.
- Using the $375,000 stage-timing finish instead leaves $225,000 unsupported: 9 wins, 45 qualified opportunities, and 150 held discoveries at the same assumptions.
Test the work against capacity
Three fully productive AEs and one at assumed 50% ramp provide 3.5 productive equivalents. At an assumed $160,000 per productive equivalent per quarter, the whole-quarter production reference is $560,000. It already includes the booked portion and is not an extra amount to add to actuals.
The immediate limit is 20 held first discoveries per week: 40 before the qualification deadline, compared with the 100 required. The team also has 60 active evaluations across all quarters, 12 assumed to resolve before intake, and an assumed concurrent limit of 70.
- 40 held discoveries × 30% qualification = 12 qualified opportunities and $300,000 created qualified ARR.
- At 20% within-window conversion and $25,000 per win, those 12 opportunities produce $60,000 in expected bookings.
- The conditional finish from the management baseline becomes $450,000 + $60,000 = $510,000, leaving $90,000 unsupported. Future opportunities are not added to today's submitted call.
- Full intake of 30 would produce an active book of 60 − 12 + 30 = 78, exceeding the 70 reference by eight. Intake of 12 leaves 60.
- A hire needing six weeks to start arrives around week 11. Without evidence for a repeatable fast-close path, assign no current-quarter recovery contribution.
Decide what the team can change before the deadline
Preserve the submitted $450,000 forecast and record new-pipeline creation as a separate scenario. Confirm whether discovery support can be available before week 6. If it cannot, the team must reduce the recovery plan rather than promise one hundred meetings it cannot hold.
Keep the planned recovery separate from the submitted forecast until actual deals support the additional contribution.
- Sales leader: confirm buyer support for the assumed existing contribution and whether extra discovery/evaluation capacity can be available before week 6.
- Growth owner: prioritize eligible accounts and test sourcing assumptions inside supported intake capacity.
- RevOps owner: maintain distinct account/opportunity sets, saved cutoffs, qualification dates, and actual funnel transitions.
- At the end of week 5, review held discoveries, accepted opportunities, buyer timing, and resolved workload.
- Update the forecast only when actual new opportunities and timing support additional contribution; otherwise retain the visible gap.