Fix the scope and existing contribution
Use one segment, sales motion, cutoff, target period, and amount definition. Keep already booked value, expected existing open contribution, and future creation separate.
- Scope, amount basis, source cutoff, period, target, and booked actuals: [ ].
- Expected contribution from existing opportunity IDs by the deadline: [amount, method, and uncertainty].
- Additional bookings required = max(0, target − booked actuals − expected existing contribution).
- Record an alternate forecast case if a different assumption materially changes the requirement.
Define the funnel and rate evidence
For each transition, specify its unit, entry event, exit event, denominator, and observation window. Repeated meetings, contacts, or channels must not create extra buying initiatives.
- Funnel steps and counting unit: [ ]. Account/opportunity deduplication rule: [ ].
- Comparable cohort, numerator, denominator, follow-up window, and cutoff for each rate: [ ].
- Use a win rate measured within the time remaining. Deals that won after that window cannot support this period's recovery estimate.
- Separate count conversion, average won ARR, and average ARR recorded at qualification. Label unknown inputs.
Work backward to required volume
Round up each count as you work backward through the funnel. The result is the volume required at the assumed average conversion rates; actual results may fall above or below it.
- Wins required = additional bookings / average won ARR.
- Qualified opportunities required = wins required / within-window win probability.
- Held discoveries required = qualified opportunities / held-to-qualified conversion.
- Booked discoveries required = held discoveries / show rate.
- Continue through engaged and eligible accounts only if those stages match the motion.
- Gross qualified ARR = required qualified opportunities × average ARR at qualification.
Set timing and workload limits
Work backward from the bookings deadline and allow time for earlier funnel steps. New opportunities must be distinct from work already included in the forecast.
- Qualification deadline, earlier-stage time allowance, and evidence for time to win: [ ].
- Available discovery/qualification slots before that deadline: [ ].
- Starting active book, expected resolutions, new intake, and concurrent-workload limit: [ ].
- Active book after intake = starting active opportunities − expected resolutions + new qualified opportunities.
- Confirm eligible accounts, available owners, and protected ownership before assigning work.
Choose an action and review it
Keep the record inside the existing operating review. Sellers maintain buyer facts in the CRM; the planning owner maintains aggregate assumptions.
- Constraint: [ ]. Action, accountable owner, and decision date: [ ].
- Evidence that would change the decision: [ ].
- Review accepted qualified opportunity count and ARR by cohort, wins within the stated window, and whether intake/workload assumptions held.
- Keep future creation in a conditional scenario until actual opportunities and buyer timing support the forecast.
- When the gap is zero, stop backsolving extra volume for that gap. When a necessary rate is unknown or zero, expose that limitation rather than returning a plausible zero requirement.